The total value of livestock, poultry and dairy exports from the US is expected to be $30.4bn in the 2016 fiscal year. That's according to the latest quarterly US agricultural trade forecast, published by the USDA's Economic Research Service.
Higher volumes are forecast for all meats. However, the value of beef exports is forecast to be virtually unchanged at a record $6.2bn as prices slacken. Pork is forecast to increase $300m to $5.1bn as larger volumes more than offset lower values. Poultry is forecast to decline by $100m to $5.3bn as generally lower unit values more than offset a small increase in volume. Exports of hides and skins are forecast up $200m to $2.9bn.
Imports, meanwhile are expected to decline, with smaller volumes of imported beef, pork, cattle and swine, plus lower pork values, in 2016 leading to a $1bn, or 6%, decline in the total import value of livestock products year-on-year.
Beef production
Larger beef imports in 2015 are partly being driven by the continued domestic decline in beef production. That is due to historically low cattle inventories and the start of domestic herd rebuilding as improved pasture conditions and lower grain prices spur expansion, the report states.
World economic growth is expected to rise to 2.9% in 2015 and improve to 3.3% in 2016, the research states. The US continues to be a driver of world growth, with 2015 growth of 2.3% down slightly from 2.4% in 2014.
Growth in the economies of emerging countries is expected to be 4% in 2015 and 2016, down from an average growth rate of 6.2% over the previous decade. Much of this is due to a significant slowdown in China, which is expected to grow at 6.6% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016, the lowest rates since 1990.