Dairy, deli, bakery categories see strong unit, dollar growth in July, as recalls slow sliced meats
Overall, dairy, deli and bakery dollars sales came in at $6.3 billion, $4.4 billion and $3.7 billion in July, growing 9.7%, 3.9% and 1.2%, respectively, according to Circana Integrated Fresh data shared during an International Dairy Deli Bakery Association webinar. Similarly, dairy, deli and bakery unit sales came in at $1.7 billion, $728 million and $997.2 million, growing 3.1%, 4.1% and 1.6%, respectively, for the month.
Deli braces for impact from Boar’s Head Provisions recall
The deli category — which is split into entertaining and prepared — saw positive gains associated with the July 4 holiday and special occasions, such as the Olympics.
In deli entertaining, units of trays, pickles/relish and holiday meals increased the most , growing by 23.2%, 19.4% and 8.7% in unit sales, respectively. Spreads were the only entertaining category that declined in units, dropping 0.3%.
The bulk of prepared deli's unit growth came from prepared meats, pizza and salads, up 11%, 8.4% and 7.8% in units, respectively. Breakfast was the only category within deli that dropped in dollars and units for the month of July, decreasing 18.6% in dollar sales and 8% in units.
Additionally, packaged lunchmeat sales came in at $577.6 million for the month, a decline of 1.9% in dollars, according to Circana data. However, the USDA issued a recall on a selection of Boar’s Head Provision product, which is expected to drag down the entire sliced meat market as consumers pull back on the category due to potential health concerns, Parker noted.
"In our past work looking at the interaction of the deli meat and [packaged] meat spaces, we do see the increasing overlap of shoppers, ... but there is an interaction between the space of people buying both together or having the same household buy across the spaces, as opposed to switching. So, keep in mind that even though the recall, the situation, is about deli eating, the entirety of sliced lunch meats are affected," she elaborated.
Egg prices rise, as dairy cheese alternative continue their slump
Viral social media moments and recipes with cottage cheese have spurred demand, while cheese alternatives continue their precipitous decline.
Cottage cheese, refrigerated whipped toppings, and refrigerated creams and creamers saw the highest unit increases within dairy in July, growing 9.6%, 6.0% and 5.6%, respectively.
For the month, eggs dollar sales grew 40.4% to $946.9 million in dollar sales and 5.7% in units, spurred by ongoing challenges associated with the bird flu, Parker said. Despite price increases, “eggs are still a value” for shoppers, she added.
“[Eggs are] still one of the best ingredients you can buy that goes a long way and is a great source of protein when you think about it by the pound,” Parker noted.
Dairy alternative cheeses continued their unit losses, dropping 9.1% for the month, followed by refrigerated cheese snack kits and refrigerated desserts rounding out the largest unit loss, declining 5.1% and 3%, respectively. Dairy alternative cheeses unit sales decreased by 8.7% and 10.6% in dollar sales for the year, ending July 28.
‘Buns and rolls really are front and center in the July eating occasions’
The bakery category — which is split between center store and perimeter — saw the slowest growth out of the three. In July, center-store bakery sales came in at $2.2 billion, for a 0.6% growth in sales and a 1.3% increase in units. Perimeter bakery reached $1.5 billion in sales or a dollar sales increase of 2.1% and units increased by 2.2%.
However, several categories saw lifts associated with the summer holidays, as “buns and rolls really are front and center in the July eating occasions,” Parker said.
In center aisle bakery, croissants, buns and rolls and pastries; danishes; and coffee cakes led unit growth, increasing 18.9%, 8.4% and 4.4%, respectively. Brownies, squares and bars saw the largest declines in dollar and unit sales, declining by 16.3% and 16%, respectively.
