Circana reports sales of combined frozen and fresh meat alternatives in July fell 6.4% to $85.4 million and unit sales slouched 10.8% to 13.5 million compared to July 2023, which may not sound good, but as 210 Analytics President Anne-Marie Roerink has repeatedly noted in the past six months “dollars and volume decreases for combined frozen and refrigerated plant-based meat alternatives are starting to level off somewhat,” led by frozen as declines in refrigerated remains in the double-digits.
Looking back over the past six months, the decline in annual sales and units frozen and refrigerated plant-based meat alternatives has slowed gradually but consistently every month. For example, sales for the 52-week period through July 28 fell 10.2% and units were down 13.6%, which is less than the year ending June 30 in which sales were down 10.7% and units were down 14.4%. Going back each month, the decline in annual sales and units was slightly higher with sales for the 52 weeks ending March 31 down 12% and units down 16.6%.
In this episode of FoodNavigator-USA’s Soup-To-Nuts podcast, Sarah Frick, the recently appointed managing director of Cargill’s plant-based meat alternatives business breaks down the opportunities and challenges facing the alternative protein space, explains what she is excited about in the space even as others write it off, how Cargill is adopting an inclusive protein strategy and leveraging partnerships to succeed in a category where others are struggling and what she thinks is missing in today’s alternative protein offerings.
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‘We set maybe unrealistic expectations’
While Frick does not deny the dramatic decline in plant-based sales and units in recent years, she argues the main desires that drove the initial uptick in the category remain — and, she said, if industry takes a back-to-basics approach in how it answers those needs then she expects consumers will return to plant-based and the category will turnaround.
She explained that the hockey stick growth many people expected during the pandemic is not panning out in part because “we set maybe unrealistic expectations for consumers about what these products were going to deliver.”
At the same time, she said, a rush of sub-par products entered the market and consumers who tried them quickly turned away from the entire segment.
But, Frick said, many of the desires that drove consumers to plant-based in the first place remain – including a desire for more sustainable food, increased transparency about their food, animal welfare, health and nutrition as well as a desire to eat more plants.
Based on the category’s stutter-step, Frick said how stakeholders meet those needs must change and focus on the trifecta of taste, strong nutrition and great value.
‘One thing that helps us is our experience in animal-based proteins’
Cargill can help manufacturers better meet that trifecta in part by drawing on its expertise in animal-proteins, said Frick.
“We know what makes a great eating experience and the role that a protein solution can play in that. So, when we base everything on that culinary knowledge,” we can find new solutions – such as new fat technology, alternative protein sources and novel technology, she said.
Frick said Cargill can help plant-based protein producers meet consumers' taste and texture expectations in part by tapping into its experience in animal-based proteins.
Partnerships are essential for rapid, long-term growth
Just as Frick is confident that Cargill is well suited to help usher in the next era of plant-based proteins, she knows that the company cannot do it alone, which is why it is seeking partners across the value chain and in adjacent areas, such as its investment in pea protein producer Puris, a partnership with Cubiq Foods to bring innovative fats to plant-based foods and investments in other technologies to scale novel proteins, like mycoprotein.
“We know we cannot do it alone. We know we need partners. And because we play in so many individual parts of the value chain, I think it opens up the way that we can partner. There is a lot we know, but there is also a lot we do not know. So, we partner a lot with academia, we partner a lot with different organizations that are going to apply our science and grow our knowledge much faster than we could do it alone,” she said.
When evaluating partnerships or potential investments in the space, Frick said Cargill considers if another company is doing “something better or faster than we could ever do it,” and whether Cargill can help them scale or grow.
“When we see that synergy, it is a pretty easy business case to make,” she said.
Three areas where Cargill sees this potential in is novel fats to use in plant-based proteins, the development of mycoproteins and more diverse, high quality but also allergen-friendly protein sources.
Frick adds partnerships are fundamental to advancing novel proteins, which she acknowledges is a dramatic change from how the space currently operates. For the past several decades, many players have operated independently, often in stealth, to gain a competitive edge.
But, in doing so, she says, many have duplicated efforts unnecessarily, which has slowed their ability to deliver on their promises. She adds, partnerships also could help address holistically the challenges facing novel proteins.
“This idea of collaboration is still a little bit untapped, and there are still players that are solely focused on the one thing that they deliver, but it is never just one thing – everything is interdependent, and so, I think, as a community, to solve this” we need to work together, she said. And if industry does, she added, “there is a lot of opportunity."
