“In a time of inflation, consumers could be looking to the ice cream category as a reward or a way to treat themselves as they cut spending in other areas. Thus, they go for full indulgence in this category. It is also possible that some consumers eat better in other aspects of their diet, and dessert is where they go for full indulgence,” SPINS Data Analyst Evonne Chan told FoodNavigator-USA.
‘Turning to sorbets could be a way for consumers to feel better about indulgence’
The frozen sorbet market is outpacing growth in ice cream, though sorbet is a relatively smaller category, Chan explained.
The frozen sorbet market was worth $132.94 million for the year ending Sept. 8, growing 9.2% in dollars from a year ago. Similarly, frozen sorbet unit sales increased by 5.2% from a year ago.
However, frozen yogurt dollar sales thawed, dropping 8.3% to $96.492 million for the same period, with units up 0.7%.
“Turning to sorbets could be a way for consumers to feel better about indulgence, it is closely associated with fruit and tends to have fewer calories as it does not have the fat from dairy. However, sorbet still does have a fair amount of sugar per serving,” Chan elaborated.
Plant-based ice cream, novelties sales continue to melt
Frozen plant-based ice cream and plant-based novelties are struggling due to slumping demand for plant-based alternatives and changing consumer behaviors. This is despite plant-based ice cream achieving a high degree of consumer acceptance, Chan noted.
The frozen plant-based ice cream market came in at $252.4 million, declining 2.5% in dollar sales and 2.4% in units, for the year ending Sept. 8. The frozen plant-based novelties, which recorded $121 million in sales for the same period, declined 9.5% in dollars and 11.4% in units.
"Plant-based ice cream can have higher price points, and as consumers find ways to cut spending in inflationary times, they could be trading it in for dairy or even sorbet," Chan noted.
Ice cream trends that dominated the market in recent years, including keto, are declining as well, Chan said. However, classic flavors, like fudge and s'mores, and global flavors, like chai and milk teas, are becoming popular and are an opportunity for CPG companies to innovate, she noted.
“A few years ago, the keto diet was at its peak, and that drove a lot of sales for the low-carb ice-cream sector. We see that consumers have started pulling back from keto for a while now, and thus sales from that sector have also slowed,” Chan explained.
Ice cream, frozen desserts have ‘space for better-for-you brands’
Overall, the ice cream and frozen novelties markets remain strong, with both segments registering dollar and unit growth this year.
The ice cream market reached $7.6 billion in sales for the year ending Sept. 8, growing by 2.8% from a year ago, while units inched positive with 0.9% growth. Additionally, frozen novelties hit $6.9 billion in sales, growing by 2.6% in dollars and 2.1% in units for the same period.
“There is always space for better-for-you brands as there will always be core consumers that are looking for healthier options no matter the category. Additionally, we have seen social media recipes for cottage cheese ice cream go viral. Consumers enjoy this for the high-protein content,” Chan noted.