Egg dollar sales jump 51% in October on avian flu concerns, as listeria slices into lunch meat sales

The holiday season might provide relief for these troubled categories, as new holiday occasions like ‘Dipsgiving’ emerged as casual ways to celebrate Thanksgiving, explained Jonna Parker, principal II and fresh foods team lead at Circana. Dipsgiving occasions focuses on providing quick eats, so consumers can spend less time cooking and more time socializing.

“Yet again, dairy, deli and bakery are at the anchor of these new trends and traditions that are forming around people grazing and gathering and having fun,” Parker noted.

Is the rise in egg dollar sales all due to avian flu?

Avian flu continues to impact egg prices and supply, driving up dollar sales in the dairy category while various dairy products are primed for growth heading into the Thanksgiving and winter holiday season.

The US dairy market for October saw dollar sales of $6.6 billion, growing 11.1% in dollars and 2.8% in units compared to a year ago, per Circana data. Refrigerated eggs grew 51.3% in dollars to $1 billion in October, with units increasing 3.3% versus a year ago.

However, consumer demand for premium eggs — whether cage-free, free-range or organic — also is raising egg dollar sales, Parker noted.

“There is buoyancy and loyalty to certain tiers and attributes within the egg category. So, even though avian influenza may drive the total price of the category up, folks who maybe are committed to animal welfare attributes — health and wellness attributes — or just a general brand attribute are somewhat sticking within their tier and not necessarily always dropping to the lowest common denominator,” she elaborated.

Cottage cheese and yogurt continue growth ahead of holiday

Cottage cheese continues to capitalize on viral social media moments, while other categories like butter, margarine and sour cream also grow as consumers seek cooking and at-home items, all projected to rise during the holiday season, Parker noted.

“Snackable items that have health attributes that are further ... creating new occasions via social media are truly having some change in demand patterns that are absolutely driving more foot traffic to dairy. Overall, [there is a] major price impact, but we are still seeing units up year-over-year because of general cost inflation. We are seeing folks continue to go to the dairy [department] for a variety of reasons to solve their at-home meal needs,” Parker elaborated.

Cottage cheese and yogurt trailed eggs in dollar sale growth, growing 20.8% and 11.4%, respectively, for October. Additionally, cottage cheese units rose by 14.1% while yogurt increased by 7.7% for the month.

Refrigerated whipped toppings, butter and margarine and sour cream grew by 10%, 9.1% and 6.1%, respectively, for October. Units were similarly up, with butter and margarine, refrigerated whipped toppings and sour cream, growing 2.9%, 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively.

‘Lunch meat overall had been trending below pounds before the recall’

Lunch meat continues to decline following a recall of Boar’s Head products due to a listeria outbreak, Parker explained.

“Lunch meat overall had been trending below pounds before the recall, and then the ... recall really had a problem with attracting new customers and getting existing buyers to buy more volume. The space overarching has a demand problem right now,” Parker said.

The deli-service lunch meat segment dollar sales declined by 16.1% and units by 12.9%, while grab-and-go lunch meat declined 8.2% in dollars and 5.5% in pounds for October. However, deli pre-sliced lunch meat bucked the trend and grew 3.6% in dollars and 6.9% in pounds.

“A lot of deli pre-sliced lunch meat volume is driven by charcuterie-style meats and really that deli section of pre-packed UPC lunch meat has become one of the destinations for dried Italian cured and other charcuterie meats,” Parker elaborated.