Dairy, produce and deli departments increased unit sales at the end of 2024, as demand for fresh foods and on-trend products like yogurt and cottage cheese remained strong, according to data from Circana shared during a recent International Dairy Deli Bakery Association webinar.
“The produce department is absolutely on fire right now. In fact, one of the interesting Thanksgiving trends we saw in our macro study of food and beverage in November showed that there has been a conscious switch between fresh cranberry sauce versus canned cranberry sauce. Sometimes, people buy both, but a lot more people in 2024 were opting for fresh perimeter cranberries, just one canary in the coal mine to say freshness and immediacy can enhance any occasion,” said Jonna Parker, principal II and team lead for fresh foods at Circana.
Yogurt, cottage cheese continue growth, plant-based cheese slumps further
The dairy category experienced “incredibly strong” unit sales growth in November, boosted by a late Thanksgiving, Parker explained.
November dairy aisle sales hit $9.3 billion and grew 12.3% in dollars and 2.7% in units, outpacing the meat and deli department but behind produce in unit growth. November produce department sales came in at $8.5 billion, growing 4.5% in dollars and 4.1% in units, compared to a year ago, according to Circana Integrated Fresh data.
Cottage cheese, yogurt, dairy natural cheese and refrigerated cheese snack kits unit sales grew 12.6%, 7.5%, 4.3% and 3.9%, respectively. Yogurt and cottage cheese continue to meet consumer demands for health and flavors, boosted by viral social media moments, Parker explained.
“Yogurt had a tremendous month of November. Now, that has nothing to do with our Thanksgiving, but we are seeing a 7% growth in units year-over-year in yogurt,” Parker said. “There is a health play, a protein play, a taste play. That category — which has suffered for years — is having a renaissance because of its relevance to consumers.”
Refrigerated desserts and dairy processed cheese units declined 7.3% and 3.5% in units for November, respectively. Additionally, dairy alternative cheeses continued their precipitous drop, declining 3.2% in dollars and 3.5% in units for November.
“We know that lactose intolerance and an interest in plant-based lifestyle remains strong, but obviously, it may not be something that is as large as the major cheese market,” Parker elaborated.
‘The deli benefited greatly from Thanksgiving this year’
Deli sales reached $5.4 billion in November, growing 2.7% in dollars and 2.5% in units, boosted by convenient snack foods and proteins.
In the entertaining section, deli sales reached $5.4 billion, growing 2.7% in dollars and 2.5% in units for November, boosted by demand for trays, dips and sauces and pickles. In deli prepared, prepared meats, salads, pizza and appetizers led unit growth, increasing 10.8%, 7.8%, 6.6% and 6%, respectively.
“The deli benefited greatly from Thanksgiving this year, as people continue to look for things they can bring to gatherings that are easy and those deli trays are definitely hitting the mark,” Parker explained.
‘1% decline in units is quite sizable’ for bread
The bakery department “had a flat November,” driven by declines in the center aisle, Parker explained. November bakery sales totaled $4.9 billion, eking out a slight dollar increase of 0.2% and volumes declining 0.6%.
Cakes, brownies/squares/bars, snack cakes, desserts/sweet snacks declined the most in the segment in November, dropping 11.8%, 10.5%, 9.3% and 6.6%, respectively. Additionally, the bread and rolls category — the largest sub-segment of center aisle bakery — declined 1.0% in dollars and 1.4% in units in November, which hit the department’s overall numbers.
“This does not feel like a macro indictment of carbs. There are a couple of occasions and a couple of units that are causing a little bit of a slowdown in the volume, and that is what is driving these ever-so-slight but big dollar declines. Again, we are talking about a $12 billion industry in commercial sliced bread. 1% decline in units is quite sizable,” Parker elaborated.
