How US dairy states hold the keys to the White House

As the dust settles from the news of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, the bigger electoral picture remains largely unchanged.

Trump remains the frontrunner, albeit with a narrower margin ahead of the most likely Democratic nominee, current vice-president Kamala Harris. According to polls and projections aggregator 270toWin, Trump was 2% ahead of Biden in the most recent national poll from July 18.

But a closer look at the state-by-state breakdown shows that many US states remain in the balance – and that’s particularly the case for major dairy-producing states in the North East.

With New York considered a safe Democrat seat, the likes of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan remain in the balance with just over 100 days to November 5. (California is considered a safe Democrat seat and in Texas, Trump is currently polling 7% ahead of the pack.)

According to USDA ERS, California, Wisconsin, Idaho, Texas, and New York are the top US milk producing states, accounting for more than 50% of the US annual milk supply. Michigan ranks first nationally for pounds of milk
produced per dairy cow and sixth nationally for total pounds of milk produced annually with a total of 11.71 billion pounds of milk produced in 2022, according to the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development.

The three states form part of the so-called Blue Wall, but have been hotly contested in the 2016 and 2020 elections. In 2016, Trump won all three by some of the narrowest margins in history. In 2020, president Biden reclaimed all three, by very narrow margins once again.

And current polls suggest that the three states will be some of the most important battle grounds for the two main contenders.

The Electoral College Map over at 270ToWin also suggests the three states are a toss-up between the two major parties.

The current consensus forecast is placing the Republicans at 251 electoral colleges and Democrats at 226; clinching Pennsylvania would be enough for the Republicans to win the election.

Meanwhile, if the Democrats repeat their college vote wins across the three states, this would take them to 270, leapfrogging the Republicans, who would be left with 17 college votes combined to scramble for from Nevada and Arizona.

It remains to be seen how Harris’ role as the likely Democratic nominee would influence the outcome in the three states – or whether former president Trump would repeat the feat of 2016 by reclaiming them from the Democrats.

*270ToWin aggregates polls and professional election projections from across the board.